Overview

The research of the last two decades has produced a number of assessment tools designed to assess risk of violence. While it still may not be possible to predict risk with unequivocal accuracy, these tools have undoubtedly improved predictive assessment, particularly when used in combination with clinical evaluations. Many of the instruments continue to be refined, develop with continued research, and incorporate new findings. The tools are divided into two principal categories: actuarial instruments and structured clinical guides.

Actuarial instruments attach specific statistical weighting to different variables which assess the risk. They are premised on the idea that, if accuracy of prediction is the most important factor, it is best to find out how members of a comparable group of individuals conducted themselves over time. This is achieved by pains-staking follow-up research on a particular group over set periods of time. With the follow-up data on violence available, it is possible then to link these statistically to various data obtained at an earlier time. It is similar, in principle, to the way in which insurance companies evaluate risk for many types of eventuality in order to set their rates accordingly. A key defiing aspect of actuarial instruments is that scores obtained on individuals can be related to massed statistical reference data.

Structured Clinical Guides, in contrast, invite clinicians to consider a number of variables which will have some application to the assessment of risk in the case under consideration. This type of assessment is based on the idea that a great deal has been learned over the past two decades about the factors which should be taken in account when conducting risk assessments on various types of mental health, forensic, and correctional populations. The various structured guides (see below) define terms, provide items which seem merited on the basic of scientific and professional grounds, and suggest methods of scoring.

Different instruments are used to assess different types of risk. Similarly, different instruments can be used with different age groups, primarily adult and youth. It is important to realize that much of the testing of these instruments has used a predominately male population although several of these tests can be used on females.

Risk Category	Adult Instruments	Child/Youth Instruments
General Risk     / General Recidivism	Level of Service Inventory (LSI-R) General Statistical Information on Recidivism (GSIR)	Youth Level of Service Inventory (YLSI) Early Assessment Risk for Boys (EARL-20B) *for children Early Assessment Risk for Girls (EARL-21G) *for children
Workplace Risk	Workplace Risk Assessment (WRA-20) Employee Risk Assessment (ERA-20)
Spousal Violence Risk	Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA)
Violent Risk       / Violent Recidivism	Hare Psychopathy Checklist Revised (PCL-R) Historical Clinical Risk -20 (HCR-20) Violent Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG)	Hare Psychopathy Checklist, Revised - Youth Version (PCL-R: YV) Structured Assessment of Violence Risk for Youth (SAVRY)
Sexual Risk      / Sexual Recidivism	Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20) Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offence Recidivism (RRASOR) STATIC-99/ STATIC 2002 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool - Revised (MnSORT-R) Sex Offender Needs Assessment Rating (SONAR)	Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offence Recidivism (ERASOR)

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Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments:

VRAG (Violent Risk Appraisal Guide)
Quinsey, Harris, Rice, Cormier (1998)
This instrument contains a 12-item actuarial scale which has been widely used to predict risk of violence within a specific time frame following release in violent, mentally disordered offenders. Developed at Penetanguishene Mental Health Centre, the tool uses the clinical record, particularly the psycho-social history component, as a basis for scoring as opposed to interview or questionnaires. The Hare PCL-R (Psychopathy Checklist -Revised) score is incorporated into the VRAG calculations of risk.

The VRAG is not available as a stand-alone commercially available scheme but the current version is detailed in the text Violent Offenders, Appraising and Managing Risk (p.237) by Quinsey et al.

SORAG (Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide)
Quinsey, Harris, Rice, Cormier, 1998
Also developed at Penetanguishene Mental Health Centre, this 14 item instrument is a modification of the VRAG and is used to assess the risk of violent and sexual recidivism of previously convicted sex offenders within a specific period of release. It also uses the clinical record as a basis for scoring and incorporates the PCL-R scores. The VRAG is not available as a stand-alone commercially available test but the current version is detailed in the text Violent Offenders, Appraising and Managing Risk (p.241) by Quinsey et al.

The Hare PCL-R can be obtained from:
Multi-Health Systems Inc.
3770 Victoria Park Avenue
Toronto, Ontario
M4H 3M6
Tel: 800-456-3003 (US) 800-268-6011 (Canada)
E-mail: customerservice@mhs.com

The PC-SV can be obtained from:
Multi-Health Systems Inc.
3770 Victoria Park Avenue
Toronto, Ontario
M4H 3M6
Tel: 800-456-3003 (US) 800-268-6011 (Canada)
E-mail: customerservice@mhs.com

Contact Information:
Dr. A. Forth

or

Multi-Health Systems Inc.
3770 Victoria Park Avenue
Toronto, Ontario
M4H 3M6
Tel: 800-456-3003 (US) 800-268-6011 (Canada)
E-mail: customerservice@mhs.com

LEVEL OF SERVICE INVENTORY - Revised (LSI-R)
Andrews & Bonta, 1995
This is a 54-item rating scale used to assess the likelihood of general recidivism among adult offenders. It is designed to measure attributes of offenders and their situations in relation to level of supervision and treatment decisions. It has been validated for use with adult male and female correctional offenders.

YOUTH LEVEL OF SERVICE INVENTORY/CASE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY (YLSI)
This 43-item instrument was designed to measure risk, need, and responsivity factors in adolescents who have had contact with the justice system. It has been validated for use with both males and females between the ages of 12 and 17 and uses file information, self-report and collateral report information, and as well as results of other formal assessments.

Contact Information:
Dr. R.K. Hanson
Senior Research Officer
11th Floor, 340 Laurier Ave. West
Ottawa, ON K1A 0P8

STATIC-99/STATIC-2002
Hanson & Thornton, 1999 and 2002
Developed subsequently to the RRASOR, the original 10-item STATIC-99 was designed to assess the long-term potential for sexual recidivism among adult male sex offenders. It incorporates RRASOR factors. A revised version, STATIC-2002, is currently in development. Again, it has so far been used predominately within the correctional system.

SEX OFFENDER NEEDS ASSESSMENT RATING (SONAR)
Hanson & Harris, 2000
This 9 item scale is designed to measure change in risk level for sexual offenders.
It includes 5 stable factors and 4 acute factors. For more detail.

Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA)
Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995
This is a a 20 item set of risk factors for use in the assessment of spousal assault. It can be used to help gauge risk of future violence in men arrested for spousal assault.

HCR-20, Version 2 (Historical, Clinical, Risk-20)
Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, 1997
Originally made available in 1995, the HCR-20 Structured Guide for the Assessment of Violence Risk was later modified in light of actual clinical experience gained from initial trials. It is intended for use with civil psychiatric, forensic, and criminal justice populations. It consists of 20 items as well as the Hare PCL-R. There are 10 historical variables, 5 clinical variables, and 5 risk management factors.  Each item is scored as 0 (not present), 1 (possibly present) or 2 (definitely present) to yield a score out of 40. It includes variables that capture relevant past, present, and future considerations. It can be regarded as an important first step in the risk assessment process. The manual provides information about how and when to conduct violence risk assessments, reviews the research on which the risk factors are based, and suggests key questions which should be addressed when making judgments about risk. The scheme has been tested in all three of the domains for which it was originally intended.

Results of various studies which have emanated from it are summarized by K. Douglas periodically. The HCR-20 has been translated into several different languages and is under active examination internationally. Its work is guided, to an extent, by a consortium of researchers and clinicians who make up the RISC-TEAM, a sub-group of the International Association of Forensic Mental Health Services.

SEXUAL VIOLENCE RISK-20 (SVR-20)
Boer, Hart, Kropp, & Webster, 1997
This is a 20 item guide for assessing violence risk in sex offenders. Eleven items deal with Psychosocial Adjustment, 7 with Sexual Offences and 2 with Future Plans. Scoring is based on a N(definitely not present), ? (perhaps present), or Y (definitely present) scale with allowance for changes over time. Little is currently known about its effectiveness as a predictive device. Its main current usefulness lies in its ability to help structure clinical assessments.

To obtain information on the SAVRY:
Mental Health, Law and Policy Institute
University of South Florida
Tampa, FL
33612
Tel: 813-974-7947

Dr. Adelle Forth
Dr. Randy Borum
Dr. Patick Bartel

EARL-20B (Consultation Version)
Augimeri, Koegl, Webster & Levene, 1998
This is a 20 item instrument designed to measure risk of violence potential
in boys under the age of 12. The items are grouped under the headings of Family, Child, and Responsivity and items are scored on a 0 (not present), 1(possibly present), or 2 (definitely present) basis. Clinicians offer an overall clinical judgment of risk as Low, Moderate or High.

The guide was developed through references to the published scientific literature and clinical experience based on large numbers of boys and their families followed over several years. It has been translated into Swedish and a large Swedish prospective study is currently under way.

Contact information:
Earlscourt Child and Family Centre
46 St. Clair Gardens
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
M6E 3V4
Tel. 416-654-8981
E-Mail: mailus@earlscourt.on.ca